During the period before an election, polls get a lot of media coverage. Looking at them can help track the evolution of party support over time, gauge the likely results of an election or even inform voting decisions. Indeed, research indicates that people can be influenced by such information: for example, doing well in polls can help parties draw further supporters. However, it’s wise to take individual polls with a grain of salt, especially if they are ordered and promoted by a political party or if a certain company has a less-than-stellar record.
Poll trackers like the one presented below are better than looking at the results from a single poll or company, in particular when there are significant differences between various sources, as is the case here (for instance, in the past month, USR has appeared to score between 11% and 19%, depending on the poll). That’s because poll trackers can look at longer term trends and, by combining the results from multiple companies, can help minimize variation that is not meaningful – that is to say, not derived from real-world changes.
In the interactive graph, the individual colored dots represent the score of each party in one individual poll. The single, thin colored line drawn for each party is the best approximation of its popularity based on the available polling data. The larger shaded space for each party’s trend line represents a 95% confidence interval. If you hover over the graph, you can see the detailed data and if you click on a party’s name in the legend, you can turn on or off the visualization of the trend line or of the confidence interval. More details about the methodology are available below.
